Wonderland Lottery Odds
The Wonderland Trail early-access lottery draws over 10,000 entries for roughly 600 reservable circuits, an effective rate around 4-6%. The park does not publish official statistics; these figures reflect reported entry volumes.
Figures from official agency statistics, last verified July 5, 2026.
Success rates by year
| Year | Lottery | Applications | Awarded | Success rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Early-access lottery (Feb-Mar)About 600 full circuits reservable in advance; roughly 300 more issued as walk-ups. Estimate — NPS does not publish official rates. | 10,000 | — | ~4-6% |
Sources: Recreation.gov — Mount Rainier Wilderness Permits · NPS — Wonderland Trail
How to improve your Wonderland odds
- 1
The lottery only awards an early booking window, not an itinerary. Have several itineraries ready when your window opens.
- 2
About a third of circuits are held for walk-up permits issued in person up to one day ahead.
- 3
Cancellations reopen on Recreation.gov all season, and full circuits can often be stitched together from individual camp openings.
The backup plan: cancellation alerts
About 4-6% odds means most applicants lose. But lottery winners cancel all season, and those dates quietly return to the booking system. PermitSnag watches Wonderland continuously and alerts you within seconds when dates open, which is how most people who lose the lottery still get on the trail.
Wonderland lottery questions
What are the odds of winning the Wonderland lottery?
The Wonderland Trail early-access lottery draws over 10,000 entries for roughly 600 reservable circuits, an effective rate around 4-6%. The park does not publish official statistics; these figures reflect reported entry volumes.
How can I improve my Wonderland lottery odds?
The lottery only awards an early booking window, not an itinerary. Have several itineraries ready when your window opens. About a third of circuits are held for walk-up permits issued in person up to one day ahead. Cancellations reopen on Recreation.gov all season, and full circuits can often be stitched together from individual camp openings.
What if I lose the Wonderland lottery?
Cancellations. Lottery winners cancel or miss payment deadlines, and those dates return to the booking system throughout the season. Tracking Wonderland with availability alerts is the standard post-lottery fallback.