What are the real odds of winning the Half Dome permit lottery in 2026?

The preseason Half Dome lottery awards about 22 percent of applications, based on NPS statistics. In 2024, 35,289 applications competed in the March lottery for roughly 225 day-hike permits per day across the season, and the success rate came out to 22 percent, the same rate as 2023.

The daily lottery, held two days before each hiking date, runs about 19 percent overall. But that average hides a big split: weekday daily-lottery applications succeed at roughly 22 to 23 percent, while weekend applications drop to 12 to 14 percent. If your schedule allows a Tuesday or Wednesday hike, your effective odds are close to double a Saturday request.

Two practical takeaways. First, apply in the March preseason lottery with weekday dates listed, since the odds are as good as the system gets. Second, treat the daily lottery as a real second chance rather than a long shot. It issues around 50 permits per day from the daily allotment plus cancellations, and it runs every day of the cable season. Losing in April does not end your year. Cancelled preseason permits also get re-released, so watching a specific date range can catch those drops before they vanish.