What are the actual odds of winning the Enchantments Core Zone permit lottery?

Roughly 2% of Core Zone applications win, making it one of the longest-odds permits in the country. In 2024 the advance lottery drew 42,765 applications across all Enchantments zones, and only 790 of those won the Core. The advance lottery hands out about 16 people per day in the Core Zone, which is why the math is so brutal.

The application window is short: it opens February 15 and closes in early March, with results back in mid-March. Miss it and your options narrow to cancellations.

A few things genuinely move the needle. Midsummer Core dates draw the heaviest competition, so applying for May, June, or October starts helps. Sunday start dates have historically carried the best odds of any day of the week. And the other zones (Colchuck, Snow, Stuart, Eightmile) run several times better than the Core while still letting you day hike into the Core lakes.

After the lottery, cancelled permits return to Recreation.gov continuously through the season. With odds this thin, most people who end up camping in the Core got there through a lottery win in one year out of many tries, or by catching a returned permit. Watching your target zone for those drops is the realistic backup plan, not a long shot.