Permit lotteries reward crews, not soloists
A solo entry into a 10% lottery stays a 10% shot. Five people from the same crew, each applying on their own account to that same 10% lottery, push the group's combined odds to about 41%. Lottery pools keep everyone's applications, deadlines, and results in one place.
How lottery pools work
- 1
Each member submits their own lottery application
You start the pool and invite your crew. Everyone applies separately for the same permit and dates, on their own Recreation.gov (or state) account.
- 2
More applications means better collective odds
Every independent application is another shot. A crew of five applying to a 10% lottery has roughly a 41% chance that at least one of them wins.
- 3
Whoever wins hosts the crew
If anyone in the pool wins, the group coordinates to use that single permit together. PermitSnag tracks who applied and who won in one place.
The math
If everyone in a group applies independently at the same success rate, the chance that at least one person wins is 1 minus (1 minus the individual rate) raised to the group size. Here is what that looks like for groups of 2 to 8 people at three common lottery rates.
| Group size | At 5% solo odds | At 10% solo odds | At 20% solo odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 people | 10% | 19% | 36% |
| 3 people | 14% | 27% | 49% |
| 4 people | 19% | 34% | 59% |
| 5 people | 23% | 41% | 67% |
| 6 people | 26% | 47% | 74% |
| 7 people | 30% | 52% | 79% |
| 8 people | 34% | 57% | 83% |
Table values are computed, not measured — see real published lottery success rates (Half Dome, Mt. Whitney, the Enchantments, and more) on the lottery odds calculator, where you can plug in your own group size and permit.
Is applying as a group against permit lottery rules?
No. Each person applies under their own name and their own account, which is exactly how these lotteries are designed to work — agencies want more people applying, not fewer. What is not allowed is one person submitting duplicate applications under multiple names or fake accounts to game the odds. Every lottery publishes its own rules on group size and alternate-leader policies, so check the specific permit page before you apply.
What it costs
One of you runs the pool (Pro or a $12 alert). Everyone else joins free.
One organizer needs Pro ($7.99/mo) or a one-time $12 permit alert for that lottery. Everyone invited to the pool joins and applies for free.
Popular lottery permits
Yosemite
Half Dome lottery odds
The Half Dome preseason lottery awards about 22% of applications. The daily lottery, held two days before each hiking date, runs about 19% overall but roughly 22% on weekdays.
SEKI
Mt. Whitney Day lottery odds
The Mt. Whitney lottery awards roughly 22% of applications overall. Midweek dates in May, June, and October succeed at close to 30%, while Friday and Saturday requests drop near 10%.
Enchantments
Core Zone lottery odds
The Enchantments Core Zone is one of the longest-odds permits in the country: roughly 2% of applications win. Other zones (Colchuck, Snow, Stuart, Eightmile) run meaningfully better.
Vermilion Cliffs
The Wave lottery odds
The Wave advance lottery odds run about 2-3% in summer months and 10-12% in winter. 64 people per day are allowed in: 48 through the advance lottery four months out, 16 through the daily geofenced lottery.
Zion
Angels Landing lottery odds
Angels Landing is the friendliest big-name lottery: about 47% of applicants won permits in 2024, and August seasonal-lottery entries succeeded at 87%.
Idaho Rivers
Middle Fork lottery odds
The Middle Fork of the Salmon is a sub-2% draw: in 2025, nearly 19,800 applications competed for 351 launch permits (about 1.8%).
Idaho Rivers
Selway lottery odds
The Selway is the longest-odds river draw in the Four Rivers lottery, with under 1% of applications winning a launch. It issues only one launch per day in the control season.
Mt. Rainier
Wonderland lottery odds
The Wonderland Trail early-access lottery draws over 10,000 entries for roughly 600 reservable circuits, an effective rate around 4-6%. The park does not publish official statistics; these figures reflect reported entry volumes.
Lottery pool questions
How do group permit lottery applications improve odds?
Each person in your group submits their own application for the same permit and dates. If everyone has the same 10% chance of winning, the odds that at least one of five people wins work out to about 41%, using 1 minus (1 minus 0.10) to the power of 5. More applicants means more independent shots at the same permit.
What does a lottery pool cost?
One organizer needs Pro ($7.99/mo) or a $12 permit alert for that lottery. Everyone else invited to the pool joins free and applies on their own account.
What happens if nobody in the pool wins the lottery?
Lottery winners cancel or miss payment deadlines all season, and those dates go straight back to the booking calendar. Pool members already have a watch on the permit from joining, so PermitSnag keeps checking for cancellations after the lottery closes.