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Half Dome Lottery Odds

The Half Dome preseason lottery awards about 22% of applications. The daily lottery, held two days before each hiking date, runs about 19% overall but roughly 22% on weekdays.

Figures from official agency statistics, last verified July 5, 2026.

Success rates by year

YearLotteryApplicationsAwardedSuccess rate
2024Preseason lottery (March)225 day-hike permits per day across the season35,28922%
2024Daily lottery (2 days ahead)About 22% on weekdays vs 14% on weekends35,56119%
2023Preseason lottery (March)22%
2023Daily lottery (2 days ahead)About 23% on weekdays vs 12% on weekends29,29219%

Sources: NPS Half Dome Permit Lottery Statistics

How to improve your Half Dome odds

  1. 1

    Apply for weekdays. NPS data shows weekday daily-lottery applications succeed at roughly 22-23% versus 12-14% for weekends.

  2. 2

    Use the daily lottery even if you lost the preseason lottery. It issues around 50 permits per day from cancellations and the daily allotment.

  3. 3

    Cancellations of preseason permits are re-released. Watching a specific date range catches those drops.

The backup plan: cancellation alerts

22% odds means most applicants lose. But lottery winners cancel all season, and those dates quietly return to the booking system. PermitSnag watches Half Dome continuously and alerts you within seconds when dates open, which is how most people who lose the lottery still get on the trail.

Half Dome lottery questions

What are the odds of winning the Half Dome lottery?

The Half Dome preseason lottery awards about 22% of applications. The daily lottery, held two days before each hiking date, runs about 19% overall but roughly 22% on weekdays.

How can I improve my Half Dome lottery odds?

Apply for weekdays. NPS data shows weekday daily-lottery applications succeed at roughly 22-23% versus 12-14% for weekends. Use the daily lottery even if you lost the preseason lottery. It issues around 50 permits per day from cancellations and the daily allotment. Cancellations of preseason permits are re-released. Watching a specific date range catches those drops.

What if I lose the Half Dome lottery?

Cancellations. Lottery winners cancel or miss payment deadlines, and those dates return to the booking system throughout the season. Tracking Half Dome with availability alerts is the standard post-lottery fallback.