Half Dome Lottery Odds
The Half Dome preseason lottery awards about 22% of applications. The daily lottery, held two days before each hiking date, runs about 19% overall but roughly 22% on weekdays.
Figures from official agency statistics, last verified August 6, 2026.
A crew of 5, each applying, turns 22% into about 71%.
Start a poolSuccess rates by year
| Year | Lottery | Applications | Awarded | Success rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Preseason lottery (March)NPS allows about 225 day hikers each day (of a 300-hiker cap) | 35,289 | — | 22% |
| 2024 | Daily lottery (2 days ahead)Weekdays ran 22%, weekends 14% | 35,561 | — | 19% |
| 2023 | Preseason lottery (March) | — | — | 22% |
| 2023 | Daily lottery (2 days ahead)Weekdays ran 23%. NPS publishes no 2023 weekend rate — its 12% weekend figure is from 2021. | 29,292 | — | 19% |
Sources: NPS Half Dome Permit Lottery Statistics · NPS — Half Dome Permits
How to improve your Half Dome odds
- 1
Apply for weekdays. NPS reports weekday daily-lottery success at 22% in 2024 and 23% in 2023, against 14% on weekends in 2024.
- 2
Use the daily lottery even if you lost the preseason lottery. NPS says those permits are available "based on the estimated rate of under-use and cancellation of permits", so the supply tracks cancellations rather than a fixed daily number.
- 3
Cancellations of preseason permits are re-released. Watching a specific date range catches those drops.
The backup plan: cancellation alerts
22% odds means most applicants lose. But lottery winners cancel all season, and those dates quietly return to the booking system. PermitSnag watches Half Dome continuously and alerts you within seconds when dates open, which is how most people who lose the lottery still get on the trail.
Half Dome lottery questions
What are the odds of winning the Half Dome lottery?
The Half Dome preseason lottery awards about 22% of applications. The daily lottery, held two days before each hiking date, runs about 19% overall but roughly 22% on weekdays.
How can I improve my Half Dome lottery odds?
Apply for weekdays. NPS reports weekday daily-lottery success at 22% in 2024 and 23% in 2023, against 14% on weekends in 2024. Use the daily lottery even if you lost the preseason lottery. NPS says those permits are available "based on the estimated rate of under-use and cancellation of permits", so the supply tracks cancellations rather than a fixed daily number. Cancellations of preseason permits are re-released. Watching a specific date range catches those drops.
What if I lose the Half Dome lottery?
Cancellations. Lottery winners cancel or miss payment deadlines, and those dates return to the booking system throughout the season. Tracking Half Dome with availability alerts is the standard post-lottery fallback.