Permit Lottery Odds Calculator
Solo odds look grim. But lottery math compounds: more applicants in your group and more years of trying multiply your real chances. Pick a lottery below or enter any success rate to see what persistence is actually worth.
Start from a real lottery
Group wins this year
63%
4 independent applications
You win within 3 years
53%
Applying solo every year
Group wins within 3 years
95%
Group + persistence combined
Assumes each application is independent with the same success rate, and that any one winner covers the whole group (check each lottery's group-size rules). Real odds vary by date and season — see the Half Dome odds page for sourced statistics.
Two ways to beat long odds
1. Coordinate your group. Every eligible member should apply. PermitSnag's lottery pools keep everyone's applications, deadlines, and results in one place so nobody forgets to enter.
2. Hunt cancellations. Even a 2% lottery leaks permits all season as winners cancel or miss payment deadlines. Availability alerts catch those the moment they reappear — no lottery required.
Lottery odds questions
How do group applications improve permit lottery odds?
If each person in your group applies independently with the same success rate, the chance that at least one wins is 1 minus (1 minus p) to the power of the group size. Four people applying to a 22% lottery like Half Dome gives the group about a 63% chance — nearly triple the solo odds.
What are the odds of winning a permit lottery over multiple years?
The same compounding applies across years. A 22% lottery entered every year for three years gives about a 53% cumulative chance. A tough 2% lottery like the Enchantments Core Zone still only reaches about 6% after three years — which is why cancellation alerts matter for long-odds permits.
Is it against the rules to have my whole group apply?
Usually no — most lotteries allow each person to submit one application, and listing trip members is normal. What is not allowed is one person submitting multiple applications with duplicate accounts. Check each lottery's rules for group size limits and alternate-leader policies.