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PermitCast · live scanner data

4,786,859

availability scans since July 2026

Every one of them asked a booking system the same question: is anything open yet? These are the answers.

Set a permit alertHow we measure this

Look up your permit

What are the odds on yours?

Pick one of the permits we have a PermitCast for.

98 of 98 permits

King Range Lost Coast Trail Overnight Permit

Ranked 1 of 98 by the next 7 days

Next 7 days

75–85%

Good chance

13 completed 7-day windows · 15 weeks with scans

Next 14 days

65–75%

Good chance

6 completed 14-day windows · 15 weeks with scans

Where it sits among all 98

0%100%
Get alerts for this permitSee its scan history

Each range comes from a handful of completed windows.

How long you have

An Arches Fiery Furnace Day-Use Permit opening is usually gone inside 10 minutes

We timed every opening from the scan that first saw it to the scan that found it gone. On the permits we can time finely enough, most were taken well inside the hour.

0%25%50%75%100%015304560% still unclaimed, minutes after we caught itArches Fiery Furnace Day-Use Permit: 100% unclaimed when we caught itArches Fiery Furnace Day-Use Permit: half were taken inside 10 minutesArches Fiery Furnace Day-Use Permit: 17% still unclaimed at 60 minutes

10 min

Arches Fiery Furnace Day-Use Permit

83% gone within the hour · 23 openings

Dots are measured points: the start, the median, and the share still open at 60 minutes. The line between them is drawn straight, not modelled. Each median is published as an upper bound, so the real figure is that or faster. Only permits timed finely enough qualify: a figure needs measurement resolution under 15 minutes and at least 10 openings that stayed gone. The full rule.

The spread

The odds are not the same on every permit

Every permit we have scanned long enough, ranked by the chance we catch it opening in the next seven days. Each bar is a range, because the honest answer is a range.

  1. King Range Lost Coast Trail Overnight75–85%
  2. Mount St. Helens Climbing75–85%
  3. Enchantments Core Zone70–80%
  4. Murphy Hogback A Campsite65–75%
  5. Canyonlands White Rim Road65–75%
  6. Dead Horse Point Moenkopi Yurts65–75%
  7. Dead Horse Point Wingate Hike-In Tent Sites65–75%
  8. Dead Horse Point Wingate Yurts65–75%
  9. Idaho Wild Rivers Middle Fork Salmon River65–75%
  10. Snow Canyon Hike-In Camping Sites65–75%
  11. Vermilion Cliffs Coyote Buttes South65–75%
  12. Zion The Narrows Top-Down65–75%
  13. Chesler Park60–70%
  14. Elephant Canyon60–70%
  15. Peekaboo60–70%
  16. Inyo Mt. Whitney Mountaineer's Route60–70%
  17. Conundrum Hot Springs60–70%
  18. Mount Tamalpais Steep Ravine Environmental Camp60–70%
  19. Lodgepole High Sierra Trail60–70%
  20. Sequoia & Kings Canyon High Sierra Trail60–70%
  21. Sequoia & Kings Canyon Rae Lakes Loop60–70%
  22. Big Spring Canyon55–65%
  23. Lost Canyon55–65%
  24. Havasupai Campground55–65%
  25. Mt Whitney Trail Crest Exit55–65%
  26. North Cascades Cascade Pass Zone55–65%
  27. Sequoia & Kings Canyon Mount Langley via Cottonwood Lakes55–65%
  28. Lyell Canyon (Donohue Pass eligible)55–65%
  29. Wooden Shoe Canyon50–60%
  30. Broken Top50–60%
  31. Piute Pass (North Lake)50–60%
  32. Maroon Bells-Snowmass Four Pass Loop50–60%
  33. North Cascades Copper Ridge Loop50–60%
  34. Kearsarge Pass (JMT)45–55%
  35. Mount Rainier Wonderland Trail45–55%
  36. Glacier Point to Little Yosemite Valley45–55%
  37. Happy Isles to Past LYV (Donohue Pass eligible)45–55%
  38. Salt Creek40–50%
  39. Bishop Pass (JMT)40–50%
  40. JMT North of Devils Postpile40–50%
  41. North Cascades Backcountry40–50%
  42. Cedar Grove Bubbs Creek40–50%
  43. Sequoia & Kings Canyon Mount Whitney Day Hike40–50%
  44. Sequoia & Kings Canyon Mount Whitney Overnight40–50%
  45. Aravaipa Canyon Wilderness35–45%
  46. Arches Fiery Furnace Day-Use35–45%
  47. Kawishiwi Lake (EP37)35–45%
  48. Big Pine Creek South Fork35–45%
  49. JMT South of Devils Postpile35–45%
  50. Lamarck Lakes35–45%
  51. Little Lakes Valley35–45%
  52. Sabrina Lake35–45%
  53. North Cascades Ross Lake35–45%
  54. Olympic Coast Trail35–45%
  55. Olympic Enchanted Valley35–45%
  56. Happy Isles to Little Yosemite Valley35–45%
  57. Lizz & Swamp Lakes (EP47)30–40%
  58. Lake of the Woods30–40%
  59. Idaho Wild Rivers Selway River30–40%
  60. Big Pine Creek North Fork30–40%
  61. Cottonwood Pass (PCT)30–40%
  62. Shadow Creek (Agnew Meadow)30–40%
  63. Tyee Lakes30–40%
  64. Crater Lake30–40%
  65. Point Reyes Coast Camp Reservation30–40%
  66. Point Reyes Wildcat Camp Reservation30–40%
  67. Mineral King Sawtooth Pass Road30–40%
  68. Mineral King Timber Gap30–40%
  69. Yellowstone Bechler River Area30–40%
  70. Beehive Meadows (Hetch Hetchy)30–40%
  71. South Fork Tuolumne River30–40%
  72. Sunrise Lakes (no Donohue Pass)30–40%
  73. Tam McArthur Rim25–35%
  74. Aloha25–35%
  75. Cottonwood Lakes25–35%
  76. Mono Pass (Rock Creek)25–35%
  77. Pine Creek Pass (JMT)25–35%
  78. Olympic Hoh River Corridor25–35%
  79. Mirror Lake to Snow Creek25–35%
  80. Central Cascades Overnight20–30%
  81. Great Smoky Mountains Smokies Backcountry20–30%
  82. Havasupai Lodge Reservation20–30%
  83. Duck Pass (JMT)20–30%
  84. Minaret Lake20–30%
  85. North Fork Lone Pine Creek20–30%
  86. River Trail (Agnew Meadow)20–30%
  87. Olympic Seven Lakes Basin20–30%
  88. Cedar Grove Woods Creek20–30%
  89. Cathedral Lakes20–30%
  90. Bears Ears Grand Gulch15–25%
  91. East Bearskin Lake (EP64)15–25%
  92. Colorado Plateau Rivers San Juan River15–25%
  93. Grand Teton Climbing (Overnight)15–25%
  94. Grand Teton Paintbrush-Cascade Loop15–25%
  95. Grand Teton Teton Crest Trail15–25%
  96. Paria Canyon-Vermilion Cliffs Paria Canyon Through-Hike15–25%
  97. Vermilion Cliffs Paria Canyon Overnight15–25%
  98. May Lake15–25%

chance our scanner catches an opening in the next 7 days

The scale

Lowunder 31%Moderate31–60%Good60% and up

98 permits, from 15–25% up to 75–85%. Each range is computed from a handful of completed seven-day windows and pulled toward a pooled average, so a short record cannot run away with itself. The permits with enough history are also the ones people set the most alerts on, so this set is not a random sample of the catalogue.

When to have an alert on

Half of all openings land within 20 days

For every opening we caught, we measured the gap between catching it and the night it was for. The busiest stretch is one to two weeks before the trip.

0–4 days out: 2,105 openings5–9 days out: 2,232 openings10–14 days out: 1,843 openings15–19 days out: 1,508 openings20–24 days out: 1,285 openings25–29 days out: 1,071 openings30–34 days out: 1,003 openings35–39 days out: 867 openings40–44 days out: 663 openings45–49 days out: 228 openings50–54 days out: 341 openings55–59 days out: 271 openings60–64 days out: 194 openings65–69 days out: 159 openings70+ days out: 1,815 openingsmedian 20 days020406070+days between us catching the opening and the trip date

8–38

days out, middle half of openings

15,585

openings measured

85

days out, 95th percentile

This is the shape of the openings we have seen, rather than of every opening that exists: a date enters the sample when somebody has an alert on a window that covers it, so the curve carries our alert holders’ travel dates as well as the providers’ behaviour. Permits whose openings are mostly fetch noise are excluded.

What sits behind it

Openings we caught and confirmed

A forecast is only worth what the scanning behind it is worth. These are the openings our scanner caught and that stayed gone, on the permits whose openings we can measure cleanly.

1,471

openings caught and confirmed

81

permits they were caught on

2,054,925

scans in the last 30 days

Where these odds come from

Every figure here is measured from openings our own scanner caught, and recomputed once a day. Each one is the chance our scanner catches at least one opening on that permit inside the window shown. How we calculate this

Every permit we forecast

The whole list, by where it is

One link per permit that has a forecast, gathered under the park it sits in. It grows as more permits build up enough scan history to forecast.

The number beside each permit is its place in the same 7-day ranking the lookup above uses, out of 98.

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