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PermitCast · live scanner data

1,852,174

availability scans since July 2026

Every one of them asked a booking system the same question: is anything open yet? These are the answers.

Watch a permitHow we measure this

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What are the odds on yours?

Pick one of the permits we have a PermitCast for.

32 of 32 permits

King Range Lost Coast Trail Overnight Permit

Ranked 1 of 32 by the next 7 days

Next 7 days

60–70%

Good chance

7 completed 7-day windows · 8 weeks with scans

Next 14 days

55–65%

Good chance

3 completed 14-day windows · 8 weeks with scans

Where it sits among all 32

0%75%
Watch this permitSee its scan history

Ranges, not single numbers: each one rests on a handful of completed windows, and a point estimate would claim a precision that many observations cannot carry. A permit with no forecast is absent rather than shown at zero.

How long you have

An Enchantments Core Zone Permit opening is usually gone inside 10 minutes

We timed every opening from the scan that first saw it to the scan that found it gone. On the permits we can time finely enough, most were taken well inside the hour.

0%25%50%75%100%015304560% still unclaimed, minutes after we caught itEnchantments Core Zone Permit: 100% unclaimed when we caught itEnchantments Core Zone Permit: half were taken inside 10 minutesEnchantments Core Zone Permit: 3% still unclaimed at 60 minutesMount St. Helens Climbing Permit: 100% unclaimed when we caught itMount St. Helens Climbing Permit: half were taken inside 45 minutesMount St. Helens Climbing Permit: 39% still unclaimed at 60 minutesYosemite Wilderness Permit — Happy Isles to Past LYV (Donohue Pass eligible): 100% unclaimed when we caught itYosemite Wilderness Permit — Happy Isles to Past LYV (Donohue Pass eligible): 42% still unclaimed at 60 minutes

10 min

Enchantments Core Zone Permit

97% gone within the hour · 33 openings

45 min

Mount St. Helens Climbing Permit

61% gone within the hour · 196 openings

60 min

Yosemite Wilderness Permit — Happy Isles to Past LYV (Donohue Pass eligible)

58% gone within the hour · 19 openings

Dots are measured points: the start, the median, and the share still open at 60 minutes. The line between them is drawn straight, not modelled. Each median is published as an upper bound, so the real figure is that or faster. Only permits timed finely enough qualify — a figure needs measurement resolution under 15 minutes and at least 10 openings that stayed gone. The full rule.

The spread

The odds are not the same on every permit

Every permit we have watched long enough, ranked by the chance we catch it opening in the next seven days. Each bar is a range, because the honest answer is a range.

0%25%50%75%King Range Lost Coast Trail Overnight Permit: 60–70%Mount St. Helens Climbing Permit: 60–70%Yosemite Wilderness Permit — Lyell Canyon (Donohue Pass eligible): 55–65%Enchantments Core Zone Permit: 50–60%Inyo NF Wilderness Permit — Big Pine Creek North Fork: 45–55%Inyo NF Wilderness Permit — Mt Whitney Trail Crest Exit: 45–55%Inyo NF Wilderness Permit — Mt. Whitney Trail (Overnight): 45–55%Inyo NF Wilderness Permit — Piute Pass (North Lake): 45–55%Maroon Bells-Snowmass Maroon Bells — Conundrum Hot Springs: 45–55%Inyo Mt. Whitney Mountaineer's Route Permit: 40–50%Inyo NF Wilderness Permit — Little Lakes Valley: 40–50%Yosemite Wilderness Permit — Glacier Point to Little Yosemite Valley: 40–50%Inyo NF Wilderness Permit — Lamarck Lakes: 35–45%Yosemite Wilderness Permit — Happy Isles to Past LYV (Donohue Pass eligible): 35–45%Boundary Waters BWCAW Quota Permit — Kawishiwi Lake (EP37): 30–40%Inyo NF Wilderness Permit — Mono Pass (Rock Creek): 30–40%Inyo NF Wilderness Permit — Duck Pass (JMT): 25–35%Inyo NF Wilderness Permit — Kearsarge Pass (JMT): 25–35%Inyo NF Wilderness Permit — River Trail (Agnew Meadow): 25–35%North Cascades Backcountry Permit: 25–35%Inyo NF Wilderness Permit — Bishop Pass (JMT): 20–30%Inyo NF Wilderness Permit — Cottonwood Lakes: 20–30%Inyo NF Wilderness Permit — Minaret Lake: 20–30%Inyo NF Wilderness Permit — Mt. Whitney Zone (Day Use): 20–30%Inyo NF Wilderness Permit — North Fork Lone Pine Creek: 20–30%Yosemite Wilderness Permit — Cathedral Lakes: 20–30%Yosemite Wilderness Permit — Sunrise Lakes (no Donohue Pass): 20–30%Boundary Waters BWCAW Quota Permit — East Bearskin Lake (EP64): 15–25%Colorado Plateau Rivers San Juan River: 15–25%Grand Teton Teton Crest Trail: 15–25%Inyo NF Wilderness Permit — JMT North of Devils Postpile: 15–25%Yosemite Half Dome Day Hike Permit: 15–25%chance our scanner catches an opening in the next 7 days

The scale

Lowunder 31%Moderate31–60%Good60% and up

32 permits, from 15–25% up to 60–70%. Each range is computed from a handful of completed seven-day windows and pulled toward a pooled average, so a short record cannot run away with itself. The permits with enough history are also the ones people watch most, so this set is not a random sample of the catalogue.

When to be watching

Half of all openings land within 19 days

For every opening we caught, we measured the gap between catching it and the night it was for. The busiest stretch is one to two weeks before the trip.

0–4 days out: 427 openings5–9 days out: 602 openings10–14 days out: 448 openings15–19 days out: 336 openings20–24 days out: 345 openings25–29 days out: 251 openings30–34 days out: 229 openings35–39 days out: 215 openings40–44 days out: 187 openings45–49 days out: 78 openings50–54 days out: 57 openings55–59 days out: 37 openings60–64 days out: 49 openings65–69 days out: 44 openings70+ days out: 192 openingsmedian 19 days020406070+days between us catching the opening and the trip date

8–34

days out, middle half of openings

3,497

openings measured

73

days out, 95th percentile

Read this as a statement about the openings we see, not about every opening that exists: we only observe a date when somebody is watching a window that covers it, so the shape carries our watchers’ travel dates as well as the providers’ behaviour. Permits whose openings are mostly fetch noise are excluded.

What sits behind it

Openings we caught and confirmed

A forecast is only worth what the scanning behind it is worth. These are the openings our scanner caught and that stayed gone, on the permits whose openings we can measure cleanly.

869

openings caught and confirmed

43

permits they were caught on

883,413

scans in the last 30 days

Why only some permits carry a forecast

A permit needs six weeks of scan coverage, at least 30 scans, and scans in at least three separate weeks. 32 of the 88 we scanned in the last 30 days clear that floor. For the rest we publish nothing rather than guess.

What this is not

Not a guarantee, not a specific date, and not applicable to lottery permits. It is a count of what our own scanner caught, and it is recomputed once a day. How we calculate this

The live drop feedScanner activity by permitLottery odds calculator