Wonderland Lottery Odds
Mount Rainier publishes no success rate for the Wonderland Trail early-access lottery. What the park does publish is the split: two thirds of wilderness permits are available for advance reservation, and the remaining third are issued first-come, first-served at ranger stations.
Figures from official agency statistics, last verified August 6, 2026.
Success rates by year
| Year | Lottery | Applications | Awarded | Success rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Wilderness permit supply (advance vs walk-up)Two thirds of wilderness permits go to advance reservation, one third to first-come, first-served. Sites and zones open for reservation on April 25. NPS publishes no lottery success rate. | — | — | Not published |
Sources: Recreation.gov — Mount Rainier Wilderness Permits · NPS — Wonderland Trail
How to improve your Wonderland odds
- 1
The lottery only awards an early booking window, not an itinerary. Have several itineraries ready when your window opens.
- 2
A third of permits are held for first-come, first-served pickup at ranger stations, so a failed lottery is not the end of the route.
- 3
Cancellations reopen on Recreation.gov all season, and full circuits can often be stitched together from individual camp openings.
The backup plan: cancellation alerts
Demand for this permit runs well past the daily quota, so most applicants lose. But lottery winners cancel all season, and those dates quietly return to the booking system. PermitSnag watches Wonderland continuously and alerts you within seconds when dates open, which is how most people who lose the lottery still get on the trail.
Wonderland lottery questions
What are the odds of winning the Wonderland lottery?
Mount Rainier publishes no success rate for the Wonderland Trail early-access lottery. What the park does publish is the split: two thirds of wilderness permits are available for advance reservation, and the remaining third are issued first-come, first-served at ranger stations.
How can I improve my Wonderland lottery odds?
The lottery only awards an early booking window, not an itinerary. Have several itineraries ready when your window opens. A third of permits are held for first-come, first-served pickup at ranger stations, so a failed lottery is not the end of the route. Cancellations reopen on Recreation.gov all season, and full circuits can often be stitched together from individual camp openings.
What if I lose the Wonderland lottery?
Cancellations. Lottery winners cancel or miss payment deadlines, and those dates return to the booking system throughout the season. Tracking Wonderland with availability alerts is the standard post-lottery fallback.