The Wave Lottery Odds
BLM publishes no success rate for The Wave. What is fixed and published is the capacity: a daily maximum of 64 people, with 48 awarded through the advance lottery four months ahead and the other 16 through the geofenced Daily Lottery.
Figures from official agency statistics, last verified August 6, 2026.
Success rates by year
| Year | Lottery | Applications | Awarded | Success rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Advance lottery (4 months ahead)48 people and/or 12 groups per day, whichever comes first. BLM publishes no success rate. | — | — | Not published |
| 2026 | Daily lottery (geofenced)16 people and/or 4 groups per day, whichever comes first; you must apply from within the geofenced area near Kanab. | — | — | Not published |
Sources: BLM — Coyote Buttes North Advanced Lottery (The Wave) · Recreation.gov Coyote Buttes North advance lottery
How to improve your The Wave odds
- 1
Use the Daily Lottery if you are already traveling in the area. It holds 16 of the 64 daily spaces and is geofenced near Kanab, so only people already nearby can enter it.
- 2
Enter every month. You apply during a calendar month for a permit in the calendar month four months ahead, and each person may submit only one application per lottery.
- 3
Keep the group to six. The maximum group size is 6 people and all group members must stay together for the entire hike, so a larger party needs more than one winning permit.
The backup plan: cancellation alerts
Demand for this permit runs well past the daily quota, so most applicants lose. But lottery winners cancel all season, and those dates quietly return to the booking system. PermitSnag watches The Wave continuously and alerts you within seconds when dates open, which is how most people who lose the lottery still get on the trail.
The Wave lottery questions
What are the odds of winning the The Wave lottery?
BLM publishes no success rate for The Wave. What is fixed and published is the capacity: a daily maximum of 64 people, with 48 awarded through the advance lottery four months ahead and the other 16 through the geofenced Daily Lottery.
How can I improve my The Wave lottery odds?
Use the Daily Lottery if you are already traveling in the area. It holds 16 of the 64 daily spaces and is geofenced near Kanab, so only people already nearby can enter it. Enter every month. You apply during a calendar month for a permit in the calendar month four months ahead, and each person may submit only one application per lottery. Keep the group to six. The maximum group size is 6 people and all group members must stay together for the entire hike, so a larger party needs more than one winning permit.
What if I lose the The Wave lottery?
Cancellations. Lottery winners cancel or miss payment deadlines, and those dates return to the booking system throughout the season. Tracking The Wave with availability alerts is the standard post-lottery fallback.