The Wave Lottery Odds
The Wave advance lottery odds run about 2-3% in summer months and 10-12% in winter. 64 people per day are allowed in: 48 through the advance lottery four months out, 16 through the daily geofenced lottery.
Figures from official agency statistics, last verified July 5, 2026.
Success rates by year
| Year | Lottery | Applications | Awarded | Success rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Advance lottery (4 months ahead)48 people/12 groups per day; summer ~2-3%, winter ~10-12% | — | — | 2-12% |
| 2025 | Daily lottery (2 days ahead, geofenced)16 people/4 groups per day; requires applying from the Kanab area | — | — | varies |
Sources: BLM — Coyote Buttes North Advanced Lottery (The Wave) · Recreation.gov Coyote Buttes North advance lottery
How to improve your The Wave odds
- 1
Apply for winter dates. November through February odds run several times better than summer.
- 2
Use the daily lottery if you are already traveling in the area. It is geofenced to the Kanab region and draws a much smaller pool.
- 3
Enter every month. The advance lottery runs monthly, four months ahead of the entry date.
The backup plan: cancellation alerts
2-12% odds means most applicants lose. But lottery winners cancel all season, and those dates quietly return to the booking system. PermitSnag watches The Wave continuously and alerts you within seconds when dates open, which is how most people who lose the lottery still get on the trail.
The Wave lottery questions
What are the odds of winning the The Wave lottery?
The Wave advance lottery odds run about 2-3% in summer months and 10-12% in winter. 64 people per day are allowed in: 48 through the advance lottery four months out, 16 through the daily geofenced lottery.
How can I improve my The Wave lottery odds?
Apply for winter dates. November through February odds run several times better than summer. Use the daily lottery if you are already traveling in the area. It is geofenced to the Kanab region and draws a much smaller pool. Enter every month. The advance lottery runs monthly, four months ahead of the entry date.
What if I lose the The Wave lottery?
Cancellations. Lottery winners cancel or miss payment deadlines, and those dates return to the booking system throughout the season. Tracking The Wave with availability alerts is the standard post-lottery fallback.