Shepherd Pass (JMT) Forecast: Odds of an Opening
Your odds of catching a Shepherd Pass (JMT) availability opening in the window ahead: a band grounded in 4 weeks of our own scan history, not a guess.
PermitCast forecast
Odds of an opening for Shepherd Pass (JMT)
Your chance of an opening in the window ahead, based on how often this permit has opened before.
Next 7 days
Moderate chance
Next 14 days
Moderate chance
We check this permit about every 3 hours. Openings that close faster than that can slip between checks, so the true chance may be higher.
Based on 4 weeks of our scan history. Forecast last updated Oct 23, 2026.
Shepherd Pass (JMT) forecast questions
What are the odds of catching a Shepherd Pass (JMT) opening?
Right now our forecast puts the next 30 days at a moderate chance of catching at least one availability opening for Shepherd Pass (JMT), based on 4 weeks of our own scan history. It's a band. See how we calculate it on the methodology page.
How is the Shepherd Pass (JMT) forecast calculated?
We split our scan history into non-overlapping windows and measure how often at least one opening was actually detected, then shrink that rate toward a pooled prior so a short history can't overstate its confidence. Every number comes from real scan history. Full math on /forecasts.
Is this a guarantee that Shepherd Pass (JMT) will open up?
No. It's a banded probability from historical scan data, not a prediction of a specific date and not a guarantee. Set an alert and we'll tell you the moment a real opening is detected.