Rubicon Forecast: Odds of an Opening
Odds for Rubicon are paused while it is off season or closed. They come back when it reopens.
PermitCast forecast
It is off-season. Daily permit quotas resume May 28
Rubicon still requires a permit. You can get one on request without a lottery or daily quota.
We pause the odds while a permit is off season or closed, because there is nothing to catch. They come back when it reopens.
Rubicon forecast questions
What are the odds of catching a Rubicon opening?
Odds for Rubicon are paused right now because it is off season or closed. We show them again when it reopens.
How is the Rubicon forecast calculated?
We split our scan history into non-overlapping windows and measure how often at least one opening was actually detected, then shrink that rate toward a pooled prior so a short history can't overstate its confidence. Every number comes from real scan history. Full math on /forecasts.
Is this a guarantee that Rubicon will open up?
No. It's a banded probability from historical scan data, not a prediction of a specific date and not a guarantee.