Paria Canyon Forecast: Odds of an Opening
Your odds of catching a Paria Canyon availability opening in the window ahead: a band grounded in 13 weeks of our own scan history, not a guess.
PermitCast forecast
Odds of an opening for Paria Canyon
Your chance of an opening in the window ahead, based on how often this permit has opened before.
Next 7 days
Low chance
Next 14 days
Moderate chance
Next 30 days
Moderate chance
We check this permit about every minute.
Based on 13 weeks of our scan history. Forecast last updated Oct 23, 2026.
Paria Canyon forecast questions
What are the odds of catching a Paria Canyon opening?
Right now our forecast puts the next 30 days at a moderate chance of catching at least one availability opening for Paria Canyon, based on 13 weeks of our own scan history. It's a band. See how we calculate it on the methodology page.
How is the Paria Canyon forecast calculated?
We split our scan history into non-overlapping windows and measure how often at least one opening was actually detected, then shrink that rate toward a pooled prior so a short history can't overstate its confidence. Every number comes from real scan history. Full math on /forecasts.
Is this a guarantee that Paria Canyon will open up?
No. It's a banded probability from historical scan data, not a prediction of a specific date and not a guarantee. Set an alert and we'll tell you the moment a real opening is detected.