Yampa Lottery Odds
The Yampa River lottery through Dinosaur National Monument is one of the toughest river draws in the West: 18,325 applied for 300 permits in 2022, about a 1.6% success rate — nearly 1 in 60.
Figures from official agency statistics, last verified July 10, 2026.
A crew of 5, each applying, turns 2% into about 8%.
Start a poolSuccess rates by year
| Year | Lottery | Applications | Awarded | Success rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | NPS river permit lottery (Dec-Jan)Reported as 'nearly 1 in 60' odds | 18,325 | 300 | ~1.6% |
Sources: NPS — Dinosaur National Monument Boating and Rafting · The Colorado Sun — West river permit system demand reporting
How to improve your Yampa odds
- 1
Apply for shoulder-season dates. Peak spring runoff dates in May and June draw the most applications.
- 2
List several date ranges instead of one fixed date — the lottery weighs flexible applications favorably.
- 3
Watch for cancellations after the lottery. Awarded permits that fall through are re-released on Recreation.gov through the season.
The backup plan: cancellation alerts
About 1.6% odds means most applicants lose. But lottery winners cancel all season, and those dates quietly return to the booking system. PermitSnag watches Yampa continuously and alerts you within seconds when dates open, which is how most people who lose the lottery still get on the trail.
Yampa lottery questions
What are the odds of winning the Yampa lottery?
The Yampa River lottery through Dinosaur National Monument is one of the toughest river draws in the West: 18,325 applied for 300 permits in 2022, about a 1.6% success rate — nearly 1 in 60.
How can I improve my Yampa lottery odds?
Apply for shoulder-season dates. Peak spring runoff dates in May and June draw the most applications. List several date ranges instead of one fixed date — the lottery weighs flexible applications favorably. Watch for cancellations after the lottery. Awarded permits that fall through are re-released on Recreation.gov through the season.
What if I lose the Yampa lottery?
Cancellations. Lottery winners cancel or miss payment deadlines, and those dates return to the booking system throughout the season. Tracking Yampa with availability alerts is the standard post-lottery fallback.