Smith Lottery Odds
Montana's Smith River permit lottery drew 11,571 applicants for 995 float permits in 2025, about an 8.6% overall success rate. The most popular launch date, June 15, ran far longer odds at under 2%.
Figures from official agency statistics, last verified July 10, 2026.
A crew of 5, each applying, turns 9% into about 36%.
Start a poolSuccess rates by year
| Year | Lottery | Applications | Awarded | Success rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Montana FWP annual permit lottery428 applicants competed for 8 permits on the most popular date (June 15), about 1.87% | 11,571 | 995 | ~8.6% |
Sources: Montana Fish, Wildlife & Parks — Smith River · The Outdoor Wire — Smith River drawing odds statistics
How to improve your Smith odds
- 1
Avoid mid-June. The most popular launch dates draw the heaviest competition and the longest odds, well under the overall average.
- 2
Apply for April, late July, or August launches. Shoulder-season dates on the April 1 - August 15 season draw fewer applicants.
- 3
Consider a Smith River Super Permit if you don't draw. FWP sells a limited number of additional permits separately from the main lottery.
The backup plan: cancellation alerts
About 8.6% odds means most applicants lose. But lottery winners cancel all season, and those dates quietly return to the booking system. PermitSnag watches Smith continuously and alerts you within seconds when dates open, which is how most people who lose the lottery still get on the trail.
Smith lottery questions
What are the odds of winning the Smith lottery?
Montana's Smith River permit lottery drew 11,571 applicants for 995 float permits in 2025, about an 8.6% overall success rate. The most popular launch date, June 15, ran far longer odds at under 2%.
How can I improve my Smith lottery odds?
Avoid mid-June. The most popular launch dates draw the heaviest competition and the longest odds, well under the overall average. Apply for April, late July, or August launches. Shoulder-season dates on the April 1 - August 15 season draw fewer applicants. Consider a Smith River Super Permit if you don't draw. FWP sells a limited number of additional permits separately from the main lottery.
What if I lose the Smith lottery?
Cancellations. Lottery winners cancel or miss payment deadlines, and those dates return to the booking system throughout the season. Tracking Smith with availability alerts is the standard post-lottery fallback.