Happy Isles to Little Yosemite Valley Forecast: Odds of an Opening
Your odds of catching a Happy Isles to Little Yosemite Valley availability opening in the window ahead — a band grounded in 7 weeks of our own scan history, not a guess.
PermitCast forecast
Odds of an opening for Happy Isles to Little Yosemite Valley
The odds that our scanner catches at least one availability opening for this permit in the window ahead — based on how often it actually has, not a guess.
Next 7 days
Moderate chance
Next 14 days
Moderate chance
Next 30 days
Good chance
Based on 7 weeks of our scan history. Forecast last updated Sep 20, 2026.
Happy Isles to Little Yosemite Valley forecast questions
What are the odds of catching a Happy Isles to Little Yosemite Valley opening?
Right now our forecast puts the next 30 days at a good chance of catching at least one availability opening for Happy Isles to Little Yosemite Valley, based on 7 weeks of our own scan history. It's a band, not a promise — read how we calculate it on the methodology page.
How is the Happy Isles to Little Yosemite Valley forecast calculated?
We split our scan history into non-overlapping windows and measure how often at least one opening was actually detected, then shrink that rate toward a pooled prior so a short history can't overstate its confidence. No lottery data, no guessing — just what our scanner has seen. Full math on /forecasts.
Is this a guarantee that Happy Isles to Little Yosemite Valley will open up?
No. It's a banded probability from historical scan data, not a prediction of a specific date and not a guarantee. Set a watch and we'll alert you the moment a real opening is detected.