May Lake Forecast: Odds of an Opening
Odds for May Lake are paused while it is off season or closed. They come back when it reopens.
PermitCast forecast
It is off-season. Daily permit quotas resume June 18
May Lake still requires a permit. You can get one on request without a lottery or daily quota.
We pause the odds while a permit is off season or closed, because there is nothing to catch. They come back when it reopens.
May Lake forecast questions
What are the odds of catching a May Lake opening?
Odds for May Lake are paused right now because it is off season or closed. We show them again when it reopens.
How is the May Lake forecast calculated?
We split our scan history into non-overlapping windows and measure how often at least one opening was actually detected, then shrink that rate toward a pooled prior so a short history can't overstate its confidence. Every number comes from real scan history. Full math on /forecasts.
Is this a guarantee that May Lake will open up?
No. It's a banded probability from historical scan data, not a prediction of a specific date and not a guarantee.