South Fork Tuolumne River Forecast: Odds of an Opening
Your odds of catching a South Fork Tuolumne River availability opening in the window ahead: a band grounded in 5 weeks of our own scan history, not a guess.
PermitCast forecast
Odds of an opening for South Fork Tuolumne River
Your chance of an opening in the window ahead, based on how often this permit has opened before.
Next 7 days
Moderate chance
Next 14 days
Moderate chance
Next 30 days
Good chance
Based on 5 weeks of our scan history. Forecast last updated Oct 5, 2026.
South Fork Tuolumne River forecast questions
What are the odds of catching a South Fork Tuolumne River opening?
Right now our forecast puts the next 30 days at a good chance of catching at least one availability opening for South Fork Tuolumne River, based on 5 weeks of our own scan history. It's a band. See how we calculate it on the methodology page.
How is the South Fork Tuolumne River forecast calculated?
We split our scan history into non-overlapping windows and measure how often at least one opening was actually detected, then shrink that rate toward a pooled prior so a short history can't overstate its confidence. Every number comes from real scan history. Full math on /forecasts.
Is this a guarantee that South Fork Tuolumne River will open up?
No. It's a banded probability from historical scan data, not a prediction of a specific date and not a guarantee. Set an alert and we'll tell you the moment a real opening is detected.