Broken Top Forecast: Odds of an Opening
Odds for Broken Top are paused while it is off season or closed. They come back when it reopens.
PermitCast forecast
It is off-season. No permit is needed until June 15
Central Cascades does not ask for a permit here until June 15.
We pause the odds while a permit is off season or closed, because there is nothing to catch. They come back when it reopens.
Broken Top forecast questions
What are the odds of catching a Broken Top opening?
Odds for Broken Top are paused right now because it is off season or closed. We show them again when it reopens.
How is the Broken Top forecast calculated?
We split our scan history into non-overlapping windows and measure how often at least one opening was actually detected, then shrink that rate toward a pooled prior so a short history can't overstate its confidence. Every number comes from real scan history. Full math on /forecasts.
Is this a guarantee that Broken Top will open up?
No. It's a banded probability from historical scan data, not a prediction of a specific date and not a guarantee.