Mt LeConte Shelter Forecast: Odds of an Opening
Your odds of catching a Mt LeConte Shelter availability opening in the window ahead: a band grounded in 7 weeks of our own scan history, not a guess.
PermitCast forecast
Odds of an opening for Mt LeConte Shelter
Your chance of an opening in the window ahead, based on how often this permit has opened before.
Next 7 days
Good chance
Next 14 days
Good chance
Next 30 days
Good chance
We check this permit about every 29 minutes. Openings that close faster than that can slip between checks, so the true chance may be higher.
Based on 7 weeks of our scan history. Forecast last updated Oct 12, 2026.
Mt LeConte Shelter forecast questions
What are the odds of catching a Mt LeConte Shelter opening?
Right now our forecast puts the next 30 days at a good chance of catching at least one availability opening for Mt LeConte Shelter, based on 7 weeks of our own scan history. It's a band. See how we calculate it on the methodology page.
How is the Mt LeConte Shelter forecast calculated?
We split our scan history into non-overlapping windows and measure how often at least one opening was actually detected, then shrink that rate toward a pooled prior so a short history can't overstate its confidence. Every number comes from real scan history. Full math on /forecasts.
Is this a guarantee that Mt LeConte Shelter will open up?
No. It's a banded probability from historical scan data, not a prediction of a specific date and not a guarantee. Set an alert and we'll tell you the moment a real opening is detected.