Narrows Top-Down Forecast: Odds of an Opening
Odds for Narrows Top-Down are paused while it is off season or closed. They come back when it reopens.
PermitCast forecast
Closed after the November 2 flood
We pause the odds while a permit is off season or closed, because there is nothing to catch. They come back when it reopens.
Narrows Top-Down forecast questions
What are the odds of catching a Narrows Top-Down opening?
Odds for Narrows Top-Down are paused right now because it is off season or closed. We show them again when it reopens.
How is the Narrows Top-Down forecast calculated?
We split our scan history into non-overlapping windows and measure how often at least one opening was actually detected, then shrink that rate toward a pooled prior so a short history can't overstate its confidence. Every number comes from real scan history. Full math on /forecasts.
Is this a guarantee that Narrows Top-Down will open up?
No. It's a banded probability from historical scan data, not a prediction of a specific date and not a guarantee.