Desolation Lottery Odds
The Green River through Desolation and Gray Canyons draws roughly 11,000 applications a year for around 674 permits — about a 6% success rate, one of the more approachable BLM river draws in Utah.
Figures from official agency statistics, last verified July 10, 2026.
A crew of 5, each applying, turns 6% into about 26%.
Start a poolSuccess rates by year
| Year | Lottery | Applications | Awarded | Success rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | BLM river permit lottery (Dec-Jan) | 11,405 | 674 | ~5.9% |
| 2023 | BLM river permit lottery (Dec-Jan)Awarded-permit count for 2023 not separately reported; application volume nearly identical to 2022 | 11,325 | — | ~5.9% |
Sources: The Colorado Sun — West river permit system demand reporting · Recreation.gov — Dinosaur Green and Yampa River Permits
How to improve your Desolation odds
- 1
Apply for shoulder-season launches. Peak-runoff spring dates are the most competitive.
- 2
List flexible launch dates across the May-September season rather than a single date.
- 3
Track the put-in for cancellations. Only 647-674 private launches are allowed per season, and a single cancellation reopens a full trip slot.
The backup plan: cancellation alerts
About 5.9% odds means most applicants lose. But lottery winners cancel all season, and those dates quietly return to the booking system. PermitSnag watches Desolation continuously and alerts you within seconds when dates open, which is how most people who lose the lottery still get on the trail.
Desolation lottery questions
What are the odds of winning the Desolation lottery?
The Green River through Desolation and Gray Canyons draws roughly 11,000 applications a year for around 674 permits — about a 6% success rate, one of the more approachable BLM river draws in Utah.
How can I improve my Desolation lottery odds?
Apply for shoulder-season launches. Peak-runoff spring dates are the most competitive. List flexible launch dates across the May-September season rather than a single date. Track the put-in for cancellations. Only 647-674 private launches are allowed per season, and a single cancellation reopens a full trip slot.
What if I lose the Desolation lottery?
Cancellations. Lottery winners cancel or miss payment deadlines, and those dates return to the booking system throughout the season. Tracking Desolation with availability alerts is the standard post-lottery fallback.