JMT Yosemite Lottery Odds
Yosemite publishes no success rate for the Donohue Pass trailheads (the John Muir Trail's Yosemite entry) — its wilderness lottery statistics are released only as charts. What the park does state is the release schedule: sixty percent of reservations open 24 weeks ahead, and the remaining forty percent one week ahead.
Figures from official agency statistics, last verified August 6, 2026.
Success rates by year
| Year | Lottery | Applications | Awarded | Success rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Wilderness reservation release (Donohue Pass trailheads)Sixty percent of reservations open 24 weeks in advance, the other forty percent one week in advance. NPS publishes no success rate for these trailheads. | — | — | Not published |
Sources: NPS — Yosemite Wilderness Permit Reservations · NPS Yosemite Wilderness Permit Statistics (charts only)
How to improve your JMT Yosemite odds
- 1
Set a reminder for both release moments. Sixty percent of reservations open 24 weeks ahead and the last forty percent open one week ahead, so a trailhead that looked full all summer can reopen seven days before your start date.
- 2
Consider alternate Donohue-eligible trailheads (Sunrise Lakes, Rafferty Creek, Lyell Canyon). They reach the same JMT corridor and each carries its own separate quota.
- 3
Missed the reservation window? Cancelled Yosemite wilderness permits are re-released; PermitSnag monitors availability and alerts you when a trailhead opens up.
The backup plan: cancellation alerts
Demand for this permit runs well past the daily quota, so most applicants lose. But lottery winners cancel all season, and those dates quietly return to the booking system. PermitSnag watches JMT Yosemite continuously and alerts you within seconds when dates open, which is how most people who lose the lottery still get on the trail.
JMT Yosemite lottery questions
What are the odds of winning the JMT Yosemite lottery?
Yosemite publishes no success rate for the Donohue Pass trailheads (the John Muir Trail's Yosemite entry) — its wilderness lottery statistics are released only as charts. What the park does state is the release schedule: sixty percent of reservations open 24 weeks ahead, and the remaining forty percent one week ahead.
How can I improve my JMT Yosemite lottery odds?
Set a reminder for both release moments. Sixty percent of reservations open 24 weeks ahead and the last forty percent open one week ahead, so a trailhead that looked full all summer can reopen seven days before your start date. Consider alternate Donohue-eligible trailheads (Sunrise Lakes, Rafferty Creek, Lyell Canyon). They reach the same JMT corridor and each carries its own separate quota. Missed the reservation window? Cancelled Yosemite wilderness permits are re-released; PermitSnag monitors availability and alerts you when a trailhead opens up.
What if I lose the JMT Yosemite lottery?
Cancellations. Lottery winners cancel or miss payment deadlines, and those dates return to the booking system throughout the season. Tracking JMT Yosemite with availability alerts is the standard post-lottery fallback.